Stop Guessing What Direction to Pick and Which Prices to Use. Ancient Math-based Trading is Flat Every Day
Trade with a rule-based, mathematical, non-discretionary system.
Introducing Mark Ansel's Night Owl™
Mark Ansel has been trading professionally since 1995. After trading options in his first three years, he moved to commodities and developed systems for other professional traders.
Mark's been in the same situation as you have been. He never liked trying to guess what he was supposed to do when he was trading other people's systems.
Night Owl™ is something Mark developed initially for himself so he wouldn't need to deal with these kinds of questions.
Mark started developing Night Owl™ in 2011. His motivation was to find a better strategy than what he was using at the time. He wanted a model that would seek short-term profits by using techniques such as momentum bursts, cycle reversals and pullbacks to known support and resistance levels.
All the plays that Mark does in Night Owl™ occur in the direction of a market's underlying trend. “Predominant move” is the term Mark uses.
On a nightly basis, Mark's Night Owl™ model predicts a market's likely predominant move for the next day with amazingly high accuracy.
Mark prefers using a strategy for day trading purposes. The bank for which Mark trades requires him to be flat every day at 4:00 PM. That's the bank's rule, not a Night Owl™ rule. Mark can re-enter at 6:00 PM, when Globex trading resumes, which he typically does.
Most Night Owl™ entries occur between 6:00 and 8:00 PM. By using trailing stops, the Night Owl™ model often will remain in its plays until the following afternoon at 4:00 PM.
When you're a professional trader, the most critical element for most banks for which you might trade is not profit. It's risk management. That's the name of the game.
All Night Owl™ entries include protective stop loss orders.
Mark employs a trailing stop, which will follow along with the market in trending moves.
Most entries will elect either on a limit order or a market if touched (MIT) order depending on a trader's preference. The system is developed for MITs. Mark personally uses limit orders to manage his slippage. Mark's Night Owl™ system identifies all entries in advance.
There's no guesswork involved.
All Night Owl™ exits occur either with MIT or limit orders, depending on whether one wants to manage slippage with a limit order.
These exits are all at predetermined prices, too.
I’ve been getting used to Night Owl and have been enjoying great results. Thank you for your work and these great calls.
-Paul J. Thailand.
Is This Style of Trading Method New?
Not at all. In fact, it's quite old.
Mark bases his analysis on the Egyptian Square of Nine concepts. W.D. Gann investigated the Square of Nine almost a century ago and a little more recently, Square of Nine mathematics underlies Murrey Math, too.
One Aeromir member still has a seat at the CME and has confirmed that many floor traders know and use the Square of Nine.
What's Under the Hood?
Mark wrote a computer program that calculates Square of Nine values from zero to 156,000. From those values will come the prices he uses in trading all markets.
Mark has used Square of Nine prices for 16 years and remains amazed by how frequently any market will stop on Square of Nine prices.
Mark's Night Owl™ model identifies directional trends by evaluating exponential moving averages in four different time frames. Then it confirms those time frames with three additional time frames calculated with simple moving averages.
Night Owl™ compares the position of those seven moving averages with respect to each other. Using that information in conjunction with Market Profile® Points of Control®, from the past two to six months, it enables the strategy to calculate with precision the depths of retracements that we can expect to see.
What Is the Secret Sauce?
Night Owl™ differs from what you may already know about Market Profile® if you know anything at all about it.
Market Profile®, as with most technical indicators, was developed for a specific purpose and is used for that purpose. But Mark's Night Owl™ uses Market Profile® in a manner for which its developer never intended.
Night Owl™ was about a year old at the time but her didn't use it in the way it was intended or in the way it was taught to him.
Mark found a use for Market Profile® that to the best of his knowledge nobody else is doing. He never has taught or revealed his techniques of using Market Profile® in Night Owl™.
To the best of Mark's knowledge, no one used Market Profile® like he does.
Market Profile® is phenomenally accurate in the way Mark's Night Owl™ uses it. For example, it lets him know when to take a reversal trade versus when to stay with the Night Owl™'s original determination of direction.
What does that mean?
It means over the course of those 22-hours Night Owl™ is active each day, we don't always get a move that just goes from point A to point B in a straight line.
Sometimes you will have a market that is trading back and forth between a high and a low, and you need to determine, “How do I know when to take a reversal?”
Night Owl™ lets you know that, based on Market Profile®, and where a market's price is with respect to its daily Market Profile®.
Subscribers will not see this detail, because Mark will not teach the secret sauce of Night Owl™ per se. Night Owl™ is far too complex for an average person to learn without having its highly technical mathematical background first.
And that background is substantial.
If Night Owl™ were a class at a university, you could spend the entire semester studying it, and not learn all of it.
Just as an aside, Mark's academic mentor from the University of Texas has encouraged him to return to the university more than once to submit Night Owl™ as the basis for a doctoral dissertation. While the tools and indicators that Night Owl™ uses are not proprietary, its use of those tools, and the research that has gone behind how Mark uses those tools is proprietary.
The Night Owl trading system offered through Aeromir.com trades oil futures and Euro futures. The service publishes daily recommendations for both markets, and there are specific rules recommended by the author on how to use the daily data. These rules are clearly spelled out, but not always easy to implement. After entry in a trade, an OCO bracket can be setup for exit. However, the target exit price can change dynamically during the trade depending on market movement. I suppose the dynamic changes could be programmed into a trading platform, but I chose to trade the system manually with adjustments made each time by myself. The difficulty arises when the adjustments occur during the middle of the night.
During my first 3 months using the system I noted 54 trade opportunities, roughly one a day on average. I took 49 of those trades, 27 of which required one or more adjustments before exiting. The daily alerts typically arrive shortly after 6:00 pm ET. Five times during those 54 alerts the alert message reached me too late to enter at the recommended price for that trade since the market moved fast away from the entry price. I setup my trading platform to send me alerts when an adjustment was required during a trade. User error on my part occurred twice when I slept through the alerts. Night Owl is an apt name for this system because the trader must be vigilant all night to make timely adjustments to the trade exits.
My win rate was 61%. That performance would be a little better if all suggested adjustments had been made and if daily alerts came with earlier warning of the recommended entry price. The system has a winning expected value since profit targets and stop losses are roughly of equal size. A remarkable number of times the market moves very close to the Night Owl Square of Nines table values before reversing, demonstrating that key elements of Night Owl are spot on. These table values are used to set entry, target, and stop levels.
-Bill L. in Santa Clara, CA
Which Markets Does Night Owl™ Trade?
Night Owl™ works well in any market in which the volatility is strong, and the market offers excellent liquidity.
Mark's favorite markets are Crude Oil and the Euro.
Crude Oil is the most heavily traded and the most liquid commodity market there is.
All the major currencies also offer excellent liquidity.
For those reasons, Mark trades Crude Oil and the Euro futures on GLOBEX ®.
How Do I Trade Night Owl™?
Mark will post his entry and exit orders for you on the class page. You will get email and can get a Slack notification when Mark posts the days' trades.
Here is what one looks like.
While I am still building proficiency in the Night Owl trades, the results are phenomenal. I just want to mention that I thoroughly enjoy your system.
-David Z. in Palm Desert, CA
Can I Scalp The Markets With Night Owl™?
No. Night Owl™ is not a scalping tool.
The reason Mark developed Night Owl™ the way he did was that he recognized his own weakness as a trader.
Mark was impatient in front of a computer screen.
Mark wanted a system that would use wider stops, require fewer entries, and seek targets farther away.
If you want to jump in and out of positions all day long, Night Owl™ is NOT for you!
How Accurate is Night Owl™?
Night Owl™ is around 70% accurate.
In 2017 its accuracy was 73%.
Roughly three out of four trades were profitable.
How Has Night Owl™ Performed?
The worst year Mark experienced with Night Owl™ was 2015. That year had somewhat low volatility.
Mark discovered something new that benefited Night Owl™ that was not one of its original components, which improved the performance.
Afterward, Mark dug deeply into those low-volatility markets and discovered something missing from Night Owl™. He added that as an additional component, which improved the performance.
Mark can't reveal what that component is because it is part of a proprietary system for the bank he trades with.
The best year for Night Owl™ was +150% profit.
The worst year was +23% profit.
Night Owl™ consistently delivers +4% to +6% per month. Occasionally it will get to +20% but that is unusual.
The peak-to-trough draw down in 2015 was 6.4%.
That will not cut it with Mark's bank.
The bank does not want to see a draw down of more than 3%, or $4,500 on a $150,000 account.
Since Mark implemented the add on from 2016, the worst peak to trough draw down has been -2.8%.
Expected Return
Whether you're evaluating Night Owl™ or any other system, don't get hung up on the accuracy percentage.
Sure, 70% is great, but if you're risking $4 to make a dollar, such as with a credit spread, 70% is not going to cut it.
On the other hand, if you're trading Crude Oil, and you're risking 80 cents to make 60 cents, and you're winning three quarters of the time, you're going to make money.
The point is, accuracy percentage by itself, while important, is not the critical element. It's the combination of your accuracy percentage with your reward to risk ratio that is critically important.
You can read more about this in any probability textbook or online.
Look up the concept of Expected Return, because that's what we're talking about. If the Expected Return of a system is positive, go with it. Because that's the system that makes you the money.
Trade The Bank's Capital And Keep 80% Of The Profit
Mark will introduce you to a U.S. bank that will let you trade their capital. The bank provides 100% of the risk capital. They do not allow traders to put money into the bank's trading account.
You are free to trade you own capital but you must do that in a separate personal account.
The bank will allocate up to $150,000 of capital to you if you can show the bank, in real time, not with hypothetical back testing, that you can trade profitably to their standards.
The bank to which Mark will introduce you will provide its proprietary electronic simulator and allow you to tryout for qualification to manage up to $150,000 of its capital.
During the bank's tryout period, you must:
- Trade for a minimum of 10-days.
- You must only trade futures. No equities, currencies or options.
- Make $9,000 of profit in a $150,000 account (+6%) in simulated trading.
- Maximum draw down in any one day is $3,000.
- Overall peak-to-trough draw down cannot exceed $4,500 from one's highest profitability.
- You cannot trade one minute on either side of certain news items, such as FOMC announcements, Jobs Reports, weekly Petroleum Inventory releases, etc.
- Your trading account with the bank must be flat at 4:00 p.m. Eastern every day.
After you pass the tryout period, the bank will fund you with a live account of $150,000.
Here's the best part: You keep 80% of the profits you generate!
The bank takes 100% of the risk, but you keep 80% of the profits!
Why does the bank do this?
The bank has traders all over the world. They have a very diversified portfolio of traders who have demonstrated to them that they can trade successfully within the bank's parameters.
Thus, this is a win-win situation for the bank and anyone who qualifies to trade an allocation of its capital!
Mark will introduce any Night Owl™ subscriber to the bank once you think you're ready.
Mark Ansel Talks About The Night Owl™ Advisory Service
Part 1
Part 2
Get Started With The Night Owl™ Advisory Service
| Monthly | |||
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| Crude Oil Futures | $205 Buy Now |
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NOTE: There are no refunds! Please try Night Owl™ with a monthly subscription to see if it's a good fit before purchasing a longer subscription.
Your subscription price never increases as long as you maintain your subscription.
